Early Fall 2026 Beige Book update

As I noted above, I will try (more consistently) to post links each time to the newest Beige Book release by the Federal Reserve districts here in the Great Plains and Mountain portions of the country. I'm not planning to do every update - they release a new Beige Book 8 times per year - but would like to do quarterly if possible. They may not reflect major changes from one cycle to the next, but they are a great way to update students about economic conditions AND expose them to the mix of businesses found in a single state or region.

Based on what I've heard back from people so far, I'm going to focus on four Federal Reserve districts spanning the western half of the country (yes, I've added one):

9th District (based in Minneapolis) - covers Montana, North & South Dakota, Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin/Michigan

10th District (based in Kansas City) - covers Colorado, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma

11th District (based in Dallas) - covers Texas, southern New Mexico, and northern Louisiana

12th District (based in San Francisco) - covers Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona

I mentioned last time that I was trying to decide if there was a need in Utah and Nevada, but ultimately I decided it was more a need to contrast the middle of the country with stories of the Pacific Coast. Part of the idea of Beige Book updates (for the Fed) is to see if some regions of the country are experiencing the economy differently than others - I want to see more of that in the span of the West (for example, is the story in Texas noticeably different than California). For each I'm going to provide their overall summary and one economic sector that seems to "tell the story" for the past couple of months. Then at the end I will also provide the nationwide summary (and in this case links to a couple of podcast episodes following up on the Beige Book results).

The Beige Book links:

9th District - https://www.minneapolisfed.org/beige-book-reports/2026/2026-09-mi

Their overall summary: "The Ninth District economy expanded slightly since the previous report. Employment grew modestly, and labor demand continued to increase. Prices increased moderately, and wage growth was modest to moderate. Growth was noted in financial services, commercial construction, and manufacturing. Residential construction, energy, and agriculture were flat, while consumer spending decreased. Activity among minority- and women-owned business enterprises was down moderately."

9th District agriculture, energy, and natural resources: "District agricultural conditions remained weak overall. Contacts expressed concern about the effects of drought on crop yields and quality in some parts of the District. Most of the corn and soybean crops in eastern parts of the District were in good or excellent condition. However, conditions were worse farther to the west in areas experiencing more dryness. According to the most recent Ag Credit Survey, a majority of respondents reported that farm incomes decreased in the second quarter from a year earlier. A Minnesota lender noted that sugar beet growers experienced very large losses. High cattle prices remained a source of strength in ranching areas. Oil and gas activity in the District changed little since the last report."

10th District - https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/beige-book/tenth-district-beige-book/

Their overall summary: "Business activity had little change within the Tenth District over the previous month, though under lying conditions showed signs of softening. Retailers and manufacturers drew down inventories and limited new purchases to preserve cash and working capital amid elevated input prices and uncertain demand. Labor was cited as the top limiting factor to growth, as hiring difficulties broadened across occupations and industries and left some firms below optimal staffing levels. Cost pressures also broadened, prompting more frequent adjustments to finished-goods and retail prices. Consumer spending declined slightly due to weak households real income growth, which increasingly weighed on discretionary and nondiscretionary purchases. Expectations for the next six months became more mixed with service firms becoming less optimistic while manufacturers remained optimistic for slight-to-moderate growth.”

10th District consumer spending: "Consumer spending declined slightly within the Tenth District. Contacts reported that World Cup-related activity provided a temporary boost early in the period, but sales subsequently slowed across restaurants, hotels, and discretionary retail stores. Revenues weakened as income and balance-sheet pressures weighed more broadly on households, with consumers increasingly relying on credit cards to manage nondiscretionary spending between paychecks. Amid these household financial pressures, consumption is expected to decline slightly over the next six months."

11th District - https://www.dallasfed.org/research/beige/2026/bb260902

Their summary: "Economic activity in the Eleventh District expanded moderately over the reporting period. Growth picked up in the manufacturing, banking, and energy sectors, while it slowed in nonfinancial services. Retail sales increased but auto sales remained soft. Agriculture conditions deteriorated due to drought conditions, but wheat and cotton prices improved. Employment grew modestly with moderate wage growth. Prices rose moderately, except in the manufacturing sector which experienced robust price growth. Outlooks were stable to positive."

11th District community perspectives: "Nonprofits reported sustained high demand for assistance as households are under mounting financial pressure from the higher cost of essentials, such as food and utilities. Cuts in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Plans are expected to push up food insecurity. Organizations anticipate higher demand with no corresponding increase in resources, placing stress on both service providers and the communities they serve. Hospitals are adapting to the end of enhanced premium tax credits for Affordable Care Act insurance plans, which significantly increased monthly payments and deductibles. As a result, there has been a decline in the utilization of elective healthcare services and in the ability of patients to pay for emergency room services. Hospitals are responding by slowing hiring and capital investment."

12th District - https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/san-francisco-fed-twelfth-district-beige-book/2026/09/beige-book-august-2026/

Their summary: "Economic activity in the Twelfth District was little changed during the July to mid-August reporting period. Employers largely maintained employment levels. Wages were up slightly. Prices rose modestly, driven by elevated oil prices, tariffs, and higher input costs. Retail sales were stable, while activity in consumer and business services eased slightly. Conditions in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors were little changed. Residential real estate activity declined somewhat, while commercial real estate activity was similar to the prior reporting period. Overall lending activity was stable. Community-serving organizations continued to face heightened demand for support and funding challenges. Contacts maintained a generally soft economic outlook, with similar sentiment to the prior period."

12th District labor markets: "Employment levels were largely unchanged on net over the reporting period. Most contacts reported no change in staffing levels. A few implemented hiring freezes. Some firms in the retail and industrial sectors increased employment to support business expansion projects, including new location openings. Others reduced head counts through attrition or layoffs, which were prompted by consolidation efforts or reduced customer demand. Employee turnover remained low. Plentiful applicant pools and generally high applicant quality made most roles easy to fill, including those for seasonal agricultural work. A few contacts reported challenges navigating lost institutional knowledge as new hires replaced employees who retired. Productivity increases were attributed in roughly equal measure to new AI tools, particularly for administrative and analytical office work, and to factors unrelated to AI such as process improvements, training, and general technology. Wages were up slightly overall. Some contacts reported wage increases, and those increases were often close to the pace of inflation, reflecting in part employee pressure to keep pace with the rising cost of living. Other contacts reported keeping wage levels flat. Among businesses that raised wages, some did so across the board, while some others targeted specific roles for retention purposes. One contact in leisure and hospitality implemented a more conservative annual wage increase because of softer labor market conditions and less competition for workers. Employee benefit costs, such as for health insurance, rose."

Overall National Summary - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htm

National summary (prepared this time by the Minneapolis Fed): "Economic activity increased modestly since early July. Ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported growth in the slight to moderate range; two Districts reported no change. Consumer spending grew slightly on balance; reports reflected both heightened price sensitivity on the one hand and solid high-end purchases on the other. Auto sales were mostly subdued, dampened by downbeat consumer confidence, high fuel prices, and rising financing costs. Tourism activity increased. Notably, airlines reported strong demand despite higher airfares. Manufacturing activity picked up across most Districts, with some highlighting ongoing strength in demand for defense and data center-related orders. Services firms reported slight to modest increases in activity. Financial conditions improved slightly as loan volumes remained solid or increased across most Districts. Residential construction declined while nonresidential construction increased on balance, with some Districts noting a high concentration of activity related to data center projects. Agriculture conditions saw slight improvement but generally remained strained; the livestock sector was strong while conditions were stressed among crop producers. The general outlook for the coming months was positive, but sentiment was mixed across sectors, with contacts reporting heightened uncertainty surrounding the effects of higher energy prices, policy, and international conflict."

Audiovisual Resources to Supplement the Written Reports -

"Beige Book Portrays an Economy That Is Expanding at a Modest Pace", PNC Economics Research, Sep 2026, https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-com/pdf/aboutpnc/EconomicReports/EconomicUpdates/2026/PNC_Economics_Beige_Book_2_September_2026.pdf

"Fed’s Beige Book reports economic activity increased modestly", CNBC.com, Sep 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/09/02/feds-beige-book-reports-economic-activity-increased-modestly.html

"US Economy Increasingly Revolves Around Data Centers, New Report Shows", Investopedia, Sep 2026, https://www.investopedia.com/us-economy-increasingly-revolves-around-data-centers-beige-book-shows-12077292

"September 2026 Beige Book Interview", Timely Topics Podcast (from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Sep 2026, https://www.stlouisfed.org/timely-topics/september-2026-beige-book-interview

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